The proposed model will be used as a tool to prepare for storm-related power outages in the electrical distribution system. While transmission lines carry electricity over great distances and are supported by tall towers, distribution lines are the power lines we usually see on the sides of roads. Due to the proximity of these distribution lines to the surrounding vegetation, they are regularly interrupted during thunderstorms by falling trees or branches which cause blackouts.
UConn EEC has previously developed outage prediction models for Eversource Energy and AVANGRID, showing high predictability for New England weather. The model analyzes the data and predicts storm outages ahead of rain/windstorms, thunderstorms, snow/ice storms, extreme storms, and tropical storms. The interactions that occur in the relationship between weather, trees, and infrastructure vary by storm type.
For example, the impact of a snowstorm may differ if the precipitation is heavy or wet or if it is dry; wet snow easily sticks to trees and lines, pulling them down, making them susceptible to breaking. The team is committed to improving these models to not only replicate the real-world consequences of storm damage, but also to help prepare repair crews in advance.
Eversource’s current OPM is operational in Connecticut, Massachusetts, New York and New Hampshire. The new study will continue to strengthen existing outage models with the inclusion of mid-Atlantic storm data. With this opportunity, researchers like Dr. Cerrai will be able to carry over their existing expertise to generalize a predictive model that will be more accurate for geographic regions outside of New England.
A major research goal is to further validate existing models in New England for other regions and make iterative improvements. In these early stages, this collaboration has the potential to inspire future projects, expanding to other states further south. The key word is preparation. These patterns continue to impact how the world prepares for and recovers from storms.
After having the first kick-off meeting with Dominion Energy in mid-February, Dr. Cerrai proudly shared his hopes for the future:
“I have been working towards this goal for a long time and I am very happy to start this collaboration because it is important for our students and more generally for the scientific community to acquire additional knowledge on the relationship between weather, vegetation and infrastructure. in a way that we have never seen before. This is also important for our industry partners, as we will be sharing our acquired expertise with the UConn OPM, which is a state-of-the-art model that has been developed for all types of storms, which is unique.
At Dominion Energy, Shad Hedrick, who works in the Emergency Preparedness Center, says, “Leveraging an outage prediction model to develop plans is exciting. I look forward to the partnership with UConn.”
